Green Bay Packers
Run the ball
As of Thursday, it was not known whether Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) would be ready to return or if stud rookie running back Eddie Lacy will be healed from a twisted ankle. Whatever appearance the Packers offense takes on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys, running the ball should be priority No. 1. The Cowboys’ defense, ranked 32nd overall is 28th against the run. The pass defense is even worse, at 32nd in the league. If the Packers can establish the run, they can keep the ball out of quarterback Tony Romo’s hands and set up the pass for later in the game.
Turnovers
The Packers must channel the defense that has been creating turnovers the last few weeks. The Packers’ defense has to get off the field, and getting stops is a lot harder than creating opportunities and taking the ball away. Getting the offense more opportunities against the Cowboys’ defense should lead to points. Taking the ball away would surprise a stingy Cowboys offense. Dallas is plus-12 in turnover ratio, third in the NFL. The Packers, meanwhile, are minus-4.
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Dallas Cowboys
Blitz more
The Cowboys’ maligned defense is looking to change things. Owner Jerry Jones says his defense may need more gimmicks. If Dallas is going against backup quarterback Matt Flynn, expect a lot of blitzes. The Packers gave up five sacks last week to Atlanta, and Flynn spent too much time in the pocket deciding what to do with the ball. The Cowboys’ defense can’t be worse than it has been recently, so there is little to lose by sending the house at the Packers.
Air it out
Running back DeMarco Murray has 843 yards this season and seven touchdowns. A cratering Packers rush defense may be a tempting target for the Cowboys. The Packers’ pass defense isn’t much better. There should be opportunities for Romo to connect with tight end Jason Witten and receiver Dez Bryant. Some quick scores may be all the Cowboys need to beat a struggling Packers team. Witten and Bryant have combined for 17 touchdowns this season.
Other keys
Must-see matchup
Tyron Smith vs. Clay Matthews
Left tackle Tyron Smith is being tested this week. After having to deal with Julius Peppers on Monday night, Smith will be tasked with defending Clay Matthews on Sunday. Matthews leads the Packers with six sacks but has been dealing with a broken thumb since Week 5. Smith is having a solid season, only giving up one sack all season. Taking Matthews out of the game would cause problems for the rest of the Packers’ pass rush. If Matthews can get past Smith, though, there will be opportunities to make Romo uncomfortable.
Hot streak
If you grade the Packers’ defense on quarters instead of games, then having back-to-back solid quarters and pitching a shutout in three of the last four counts as a streak. The Packers’ defensive performance in the second half against the Atlanta Falcons might have saved the Packers’ season, or it may have delayed the inevitable, but there is no doubt that it won that game. When the Falcons needed just a field goal to take the lead in the fourth quarter, the Packers’ defense stopped them on three fourth-quarter drives. If the Packers’ defense plays like that in the final three games of the season, the Packers could very well win the division and get in the postseason.
Hot seat
Both teams
With just three weeks to go in the regular season, both teams are sweating crunch time of the playoff hunt. Almost guaranteed to lose any wild card chase to NFC South and NFC West teams, the Packers and Cowboys have only one chance to make the postseason: win their respective divisions. The Packers (6-6-1) are a half-game back of both the Chicago Bears (7-6) and the Detroit Lions (7-6) in the NFC North. The Cowboys are a full game behind the Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) in the NFC East. Whichever team wins Sunday will live to chase another week, while the loser is all but mathematically eliminated from the 2013 postseason.
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