Packers Keys to the Game (vs. Bears)

The Green Bay Packers (4-1) travel to take on the Chicago Bears (3-2) at noon Oct. 17 at Soldier Field. FOX will televise the game.

History

Green Bay leads the series 100-94-6. The Packers are 4-0 under coach Matt LaFleur and have won nine of the last 10 and 13 of the last 15 overall. For his career, Aaron Rodgers has a 20-5 record against the Bears.

Coaches

Green Bay – Matt LaFleur, 30-7, third season. Chicago — Matt Nagy, 31-22, fifth season.

When the Packers have the ball

Green Bay had its best game of the season by posting 466 yards last week against Cincinnati but saw its point total decline for the third consecutive week. For the brilliance of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, Green Bay’s attack has been mediocre. It enters this week ranked 12th with 24 points per game. That’s down almost eight points per game from last year’s league-leading total.

Incredibly, Green Bay isn’t in the top 10 in any of the major statistical categories, including total offense (21st), third down (11th) and the red zone (27th). The red-zone issues are confounding. The NFL has been tracking that stat since 1999. Last season, the Packers’ 80% touchdown rate was No. 1 during that period.

The matchup against Chicago will mark the third time that Green Bay has faced a top-10 scoring defense. New Orleans is fourth, and Cincinnati and Chicago are tied for eighth. Unlike the Bengals, the Bears have a few elite players. That’s why they’re ninth in total defense (332.4 yards per game), eighth in yards allowed per carry (3.93) and third in the red zone (37.5% touchdowns). That unit crushed the high-flying Raiders offense in Chicago’s 20-9 win Sunday.

First-year coordinator Sean Desai operates out of a 3-4 alignment. Many of the names are familiar.

The big names on the defensive line are Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman, but the stalwart is underrated Bilal Nichols. The 31-year-old Hicks isn’t quite the game-wrecker of yesteryear. He had 22½ sacks and 38 tackles for losses from 2016 through 2018 but only five sacks and nine tackles for losses the past two-plus seasons.

Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn are the quarterback-sacking outside linebackers. Mack has five sacks and Quinn has four-and-a-half as the Bears are No. 1 in the NFL in sack percentage. It’s a blast-from-the-past season for the 30-year-old Mack, who had 12½ sacks and six forced fumbles in his first season with Chicago in 2018 but “only” nine sacks in 2020 to earn Pro Bowl honors for the sixth consecutive year.

Mack, who has at least one sack in four consecutive games, has rushed mostly from the defense’s left side this season, meaning a steady diet of right tackle Billy Turner. Quinn had only two sacks last year, his first season with Chicago. He’ll be a big test for whomever lines up at left tackle, Yosh Nijman or Elgton Jenkins. Trevis Gipson has two sacks off the bench.

Roquan Smith and Alec Ogletree have been the inside linebackers. Smith leads the team with 50 tackles. He is coming off a magnificent season of 139 tackles, four sacks, 18 tackles for losses, two interceptions and seven passes defensed. He is an all-around menace.

Ogletree, who is on his fourth team in five years, has 30 tackles. Smith’s usual sidekick, Danny Trevathan, opened the season on injured reserve but returned last week. After playing 10 snaps, he figures to get more playing time this week.

Against Las Vegas, Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor started at corner, Duke Shelley manned the slot, and Eddie Jackson and Tashaun Gipson were the safeties. A second-round pick last year, Johnson has one interception and a team-high six pass breakups. He is really good. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s allowed just 9-of-23 passing. That 39.1% is fourth-best among corners.

If the Packers can protect Rodgers, there’s plays to be made against the rest of this group.

There might not be a more dangerous defensive back in the NFL than Jackson because he’s lethal if he gets the ball in his hands with 10 interceptions and six defensive touchdowns in his four-plus seasons.

When the Bears have the ball

Joe Barry’s defense is coming off its best performance of the season in holding an impressive Cincinnati offense to just two touchdowns and 22 points. It coaxed second-year quarterback Joe Burrow into two interceptions. This week, it will face rookie first-round pick Justin Fields.

Of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Fields is 31st in passer rating (64.5), 31st in yards per attempt (6.36) and 32nd in completion percentage (51.4). It’s not that Fields is bad. The bottom four in passer rating are all rookies. He’s got a rifle arm and excellent mobility.

Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney are the primary receivers. Robinson is the big name. He had 98 receptions in 2019, when he topped 100 yards in both games against Green Bay, and 102 catches in 2020.

Mooney, though, is the budding standout. A fifth-round pick last year, Mooney leads the way with 20 receptions for 261 yards. Their 37 combined receptions represent half the team’s total.

With standout running back David Montgomery on injured reserve and scatback Tarik Cohen on the physically unable to perform list, the Bears went with Damien Williams and rookie sixth-round pick Khalil Herbert as the one-two punch against the Raiders. They combined for 139 yards on 34 carries. In his eighth season, Williams never has had to carry the load. In fact, he’s got only 1,368 rushing yards in his career. He’s got 10 catches.

At tight end, Cole Kmet has 10 catches for 81 yards. Former Packers tight end Jimmy Graham has just one catch for 11 yards.

The offensive line consists of left tackle Jason Peters, left guard Cody Whitehair, center Sam Mustipher, right guard James Daniels and right tackle Germain Ifedi.

At age 39, Peters is one of the oldest starters in the NFL and one of a league-high 14 players who are 30 or older. He is starting for injured first-round pick Teven Jenkins and might be the best player on the unit. It’s been a jail break behind that wall. The Bears have the league’s worst sack percentage by a wide margin.

With a rag-tag line and a rookie quarterback, Chicago is 30th in the NFL in scoring with 16.8 points per game. It’s last in yards per game (240), yards per play (4.15), passing per game (113.2) and passing per play (4.64). It’s 28th on third down but 17th in the red zone. Green Bay is the only team to allow a touchdown on every red-zone possession.

Special teams

After a woeful performance at Cincinnati in which Mason Crosby missed four kicks, Corey Bojorquez shanked a punt and the kickoff coverage unit allowed a 44-yard return, the Packers will face a major challenge against Chicago.

The Bears recently acquired Jakeem Grant from Miami. The 5-foot-7, 171-pound speedster has career averages of 24.7 yards per kickoff return and 9.9 yards per punt return. In his Chicago debut last week, he had punt returns of 21 and 17 yards and a kickoff return of 32 yards. For perspective, the Packers haven’t had a 20-yard punt return since 2018.

Cairo Santos has solved the Bears’ long-standing issues at kicker. He is 7-of-7 on field goals after making 30-of-32 last year.

Veteran Pat O’Donnell ranks fourth with a lofty 49.8-yard average on punts. He’ll give Amari Rodgers some opportunities; 12 of his 20 punts have been returned for a 13-yard average.