Losing to a division rival, especially a rival to the magnitude of the Bears in a game that featured injuries to star players, feels devastating. Luckily for Green Bay, the season is far from over.
As it stands, it looks like the Packers’ chances to win the NFC North have vanished with the loss to Chicago. Green Bay currently has an 8% chance to win the division, according to the New York Times Playoff Prediction tool. That number jumps up to 16% if the Packers beat Baltimore and 31% if the Packers beat Baltimore and Minnesota in the remaining two weeks.
The silver lining though is that even without winning the division, Green Bay still has a great path to qualifying for the playoffs as a wild card team.
As it stands, the Packers have a 78% chance to make the playoffs. With a win over Baltimore, that number jumps up to 92%. With a loss, that number drops to 63%. To add on to that, if the Packers split the next two games, the team will have an 85% chance to make the playoffs, and if it loses both of its next two games, it will have a 40% chance to make the playoffs.
Simply put, if the Packers win both of their next two games, they are going to make the playoffs. If they split the next two games, they probably make the playoffs, and if they lose each of the next two games, they probably miss the playoffs.
So while the loss to the Chicago Bears certainly stings, that feeling comes more from losing to a division rival than from having playoff hopes slashed.
“I know that this season is not over, and we have two more games to finish this thing out,” said Packers quarterback Malik Willis. “First starting with Baltimore and we are going to have to worry about that. We can’t change what has happened, and we just have to continue to keep going.”
Willis is correct. The season is nowhere near over for the Packers after the loss to the Bears. There are still a number of opportunities for Green Bay to make the playoffs. Beating the Lions twice earlier this season certainly gives the Packers a great advantage, as it appears that the final playoff spot is going to come down to Green Bay or Detroit, meaning that the rest of the way for Detroit are must-win games.
The potential issue with the Packers moving forward the rest of the regular season (and in the playoffs) is the monumental number of injuries.
With Elgton Jenkins, Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons out for the season and Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs and Romeo Doubs leaving the game injured last week, Matt LaFleur and his staff are going to need to figure out the best combination of healthy players and get the best out of that combination of players.
Not that games come down to one play, but Green Bay is now in a position where it probably can’t get away with messing up on easy plays, like the fumbled snap or failed onside kick recovery against Chicago.
“It’s never just one play; it’s never just one phase,” said LaFleur. “That’s why I have so much confidence with our guys. These guys will rally around each other. They’ll support one another. They’ll lift the guys that need to be lifted up, and they’ll battle.”
With the number of significant injuries to the Packers, it will be necessary for those unheralded players to step up to help Green Bay win at least one more game this season. Players like Willis, Jordan Morgan, Emanuel Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks, Kingsley Enagbare, Karl Brooks and Javon Bullard are all of sudden going to be put into the spotlight.
It is no secret that winning in the NFL is a really tough thing to do, so over the next two weeks, Green Bay needs to figure out how it is going to do so.
The injuries and the loss to Chicago make it feel like the season for the Packers is over, but as Willis said, there are still two more opportunities for Green Bay to strengthen its playoff chances and get into the postseason for a possible revenge game against the Chicago Bears.
