Packers Notebook (vs. Rams)

There are plenty of reasons why the Green Bay Packers won’t reach this year’s playoffs. First, the obvious one: They’re 5-8 and in 10th place in the NFC standings with four games to go. That’s too many losses and probably not enough games to catch up.

The defense is perhaps the most underachieving unit in the NFL. The special teams have been a disappointment. Aaron Rodgers has rarely played at his customary MVP level.

Can a team that needed to outscore the woeful Chicago Bears 18-0 in the fourth quarter before the bye sweep through the Los Angeles Rams (4-9), Miami Dolphins (8-5), Minnesota Vikings (10-3) and Detroit Lions (6-7)?

The defending Super Bowl-champion Rams are huge underachievers, too, but new quarterback Baker Mayfield gave them a jolt last week. The Dolphins are 5-1 at home and will have a two-day rest advantage. The Vikings will have an extra day of rest. The Lions have won five of six.

Nonetheless, Green Bay’s come-from-behind win at Chicago meant it still had a pulse. Losses on Sunday by the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks, two teams ahead of the Packers in the wild card standings, gave added strength to their heartbeat. The Dallas Cowboys (10-3) have one wild-card spot locked up but the final two spots, held by the Washington Commanders and Giants with their 7-5-1 records, are within sight.

“Obviously heading into the season, being the No. 1 seed the last two seasons leading into this season, a lot of high hopes,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said last week. “We were certainly expected to be competing for a championship, and we are still in it. If we’re able to dig our way back into this thing, we still feel like we have the ability to do that.”

Here are seven reasons why the Packers can make the playoffs.

Aaron Rodgers to Christian Watson

Everyone knew Green Bay’s offense would be a “work in progress” following the offseason trade of Davante Adams. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers used that phrase throughout training camp. Thanks to the emerge of rookie receiver Christian Watson, that progress is showing up.

Through the first nine games, Green Bay was 27th in scoring with 17.1 points per game. It failed to reach 28 points in any of those games. It’s been a different story the last four games. With Watson supplying eight touchdowns, Green Bay is sixth in scoring with 27.3 points per game. It’s scored at least 28 in three of those four games.

With Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, the Packers have been able to run the ball for most of the season. With the emergence of Watson, they have the big-play passing element that was lacking during their first-half-of-the-season struggles.

December dominance

Under coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 15-1 in regular-season games played in December and January. Their lone loss came in last year’s meaningless finale at Detroit. Past performance isn’t indicative of future results, as the mandatory financial disclaimer states, but it does show the Packers have peaked at the right time and know how to handle the elements.

Starting with Monday night’s game against the Rams, the Packers will finish the season with three of their last four at Lambeau Field. Last year’s playoff loss to San Francisco was a cold reminder that so-called Packers weather doesn’t guarantee anything, but it should be an advantage against the warm-weather Rams and the great-indoors Vikings and Lions.

Takeaways

Joe Barry’s defense ranks 21st with 23.2 points per game. It’s all-around bad, checking in at No. 30 in yards per carry and No. 21 in yards per passing attempt. It just hasn’t played to the preseason hype with any regularity.

However, after forcing five turnovers in the first seven games, Green Bay has produced 10 over the last six games.

Sixth-place Commanders

The Commanders (7-5-1) are 6-1-1 in their last eight games. However, they are 1-4-1 against teams with winning records, and three of their final four are against teams that are at least two games over .500. That includes a home game against the seventh-place Giants on Sunday. They are 25th in scoring, ranking 27th in yards per rush, 26th in yards per pass and 27th on third down.

Remaining schedule: N.Y. Giants (7-5-1), at San Francisco (9-4), Cleveland (5-8), Dallas (10-3). Total: 31-20-1 (.606).

Seventh-place Giants

The fading Giants face the toughest finishing schedule of any playoff contender. That stretch began with a 48-22 loss at home to the Eagles on Sunday. They are 1-4-1 in their last six games, with the victory being at home against the dreadful Texans. The Giants are 20th in scoring and can’t pass the ball a lick (28th in passing per game and 31st in sack percentage).

Remaining schedule: at Washington (7-5-1), at Minnesota (10-3), Indianapolis (4-8-1), at Philadelphia (12-1). Total: 33-17-2 (.654).

Eighth-place Seahawks

The Seahawks lost at home to Carolina on Sunday, their third loss in four games and a potentially fatal blow to their playoff chances considering they face the rampaging 49ers this week and travel to the powerhouse Chiefs next week. While they play three of their last four at home, they’re only 6-8 in Seattle the last two years. Interestingly, the NFC South doesn’t have a single team with a winning record, but the Seahawks went 0-4 against that division.

Remaining schedule: San Francisco (9-4), at Kansas City (10-3), N.Y. Jets (7-6), L.A. Rams (4-9). Total: 30-22 (.577).

Ninth-place Lions

Starting with their week nine victory over Green Bay, the Lions are 5-1 in their last six games with their only loss coming on Thanksgiving against the juggernaut Bills. They are coming off a huge win over Minnesota.

While the Lions allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for 425 yards, including 223 to Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook was limited to 23 yards on 15 carries. Can a young team like the Lions finish the job despite finishing with three road games, including the finale at Lambeau?

Remaining schedule: at N.Y. Jets (7-6), at Carolina (5-8), Chicago (3-10), at Green Bay (5-8). Total: 20-32 (.385).