COVID cases likely to rise as more testing is done

Low percentage of testing means coronavirus could be spreading under the radar
By: 
Tim Ryan
Reporter

SHAWANO — Increased testing is the most likely reason Shawano County saw a spike in confirmed coronavirus cases last week, according to health officials who reported a jump in the numbers over two days.

“There’s more testing happening across the board regionally, and also locally we’re trying to do more testing,” said Vicki Dantoin, director of the Shawano-Menominee Counties Public Health Department.

“We’re trying to figure out ways to increase testing,” she said. “Part of the reason for needing an increase in testing is so that we can find where the virus is. When we have more tests and we know maybe who has it, that’s what helps us kind of stop it in its tracks.”

Shawano County’s confirmed coronavirus cases are still relatively low compared to more populated areas of the state, with 16 confirmed cases. That number jumped from 10 to 15 on April 30, and another was added May 1.

In Menominee County, there remained only one confirmed case as of Monday.

“They’re a small community,” Dantoin said. “Sometimes with fewer people, that makes it easier to keep your distance. They’ve been doing great things to really watch their population. The tribe has done curfew; that could be part of it as well.”

But also low is the percentage of people who have been tested for the virus.

In Shawano County, which has a population of around 41,000, only 420 have been tested, or roughly 1%.

In Menominee County, as of Monday, there have been 83 people tested out of a population of about 4,500, based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimates, or just under 2%.

“It’s possible the numbers will go up with more testing,” Dantoin said. “And as we start to reopen, with that there’s going to be the risk we’ll probably see more cases. Hopefully, we can keep it not too high.”

Public health officials stress that the reported numbers of COVID-19 cases represent only those that are known, and there could be more going on under the radar.

People who are asymptomatic, or at least not yet showing symptoms, could be spreading the virus without knowing it.

Also, the numbers reported by each county represent the location where that person lives, not necessarily where the virus was contracted.

Last week, the Shawano-Menominee Counties Public Health Department issued a press release stating that several people who worked at a local business had been confirmed with the coronavirus.

Those cases are not reflected in the Shawano or Menominee county numbers because those people don’t reside here.

The health department’s press release stated that “less than five” people at that business had been confirmed with COVID-19.

Dantoin said the vague description of the number was due to conflicting reports from other agencies.

“We had a few different numbers,” she said. “We weren’t sure exactly of the number. We knew it was less than five, but we had enough different sources tell us a couple of different things.”

Dantoin said, however, it is more than one.

The health department has also not revealed the name of the business.

“It’s not a place that the public frequents,” she said. “Hopefully, that puts people’s minds at ease.”

Dantoin said it would be up to the business to decide whether to release that information.

However, she said, it would be different if it were a business that presented a public health threat.

“It’s not really up to us, unless there’s something very pressing saying that, ‘OK, this is a public health problem, and we need to release it,’” she said. “We would push for that.”

Further complicating the real picture of the coronavirus is the fact that the local health department wouldn’t necessarily be notified if someone from outside the area contracts the virus here.

“It depends where they’re tested,” Dantoin said.

If, for example, someone came up to a vacation home here and contracted the virus, it would likely be reported in the county where that person lives.

“If they’ve got two residences, it will probably go to their primary residence,” Dantoin said. “There’s no guarantee we would know about those cases.”

However, Dantoin said, statewide health departments do communicate well and keep in touch with one another when red flags come up through the tracing of contacts of people who have been infected.

“We know how to communicate with each other,” she said. “If there is a situation that is tied to another health department, we will be in touch. Chances are, if someone from another county was positive and maybe they did vacation up here, if they’re doing the follow-up and they find this person may have had contacts, they would let us know about that.”

As far as contact tracing of local COVID-19 cases, it has been “a hodgepodge of different situations,” Dantoin said, but no cases so far have been linked to any particular gatherings or events.

“It’s mostly person-to-person contact that we see the most,” she said.

While at the national level there have been concerns and reports of outbreaks in nursing homes and prisons, so far there have been no reports of issues at local nursing facilities or the county jail, according to Dantoin.

“We try to keep close contact with our facilities and make sure that we’re having discussions with them,” she said. “We’re looking at having more regular meet-and-greets with our long-term care as things escalate. Just having those relationships and making sure that they feel comfortable coming to us if there’s an issue, and that we have procedures in place to help them if there’s a problem.”

As of Monday, seven of the 16 people in Shawano County confirmed with COVID-19 have recovered, as well as the one person so far confirmed in Menominee County.

But even that term is relative, given how much about the virus remains unknown — including whether those recovered can contract the virus again or still spread it.

“We mark a person as ‘recovered’ once they’re out of isolation or quarantine,” Dantoin said. “Depending on who you ask, the definition might be different.”

The health department has also taken to reporting the total number of hospitalizations that have taken place, even if those people have since left the hospital.

“That way have a number that doesn’t go away,” Dantoin said.

As of Monday, there had been two people hospitalized in Shawano County and one in Menominee County. Not one of them was still hospitalized.

Dantoin said that ultimately the goal is to make sure local health providers can keep up with any expected rise in cases.

“That’s part of our duty, to make sure we’re trying to limit the spread as much as we possibly can,” she said.

Much of the work is being done on a regional level.

The northeast region, of which Shawano and Menominee counties are a part, also includes Marinette, Oconto, Waupaca, Outagamie, Winnebago, Calumet, Fond du Lac, Waushara, Marquette, Green Lake, Sheboygan, Manitowoc, Brown, Kewaunee and Door counties.

Testing remains a top priority throughout the region.

“Regionally, we want to have more access to test kits,” Dantoin said. “It all depends on our partners and what resources they have available and what they’re able to do, as well. We’re looking at what we can do to make sure we’re ready here.”

tryan@newmedia-wi.com